Final Girls XC Prediction From Anonymous

2007 Girls State XC: Show Me, Don’t Tell Me

League champions:
BIIF: Tialana Greenwell, fr, (Honokaa)
ILH: Haley Abing, jr, (La Pietra)
KIF: Caralyn Broyles, jr, (Waimea)
MIL: Hailey Grossman, so, (Seabury)
OIA: Kristen Ali-Keith, so, (Mililani)
Where are all the seniors???

Consistency, that’s why I have Haley Abing (La Pietra) ahead of Kristin Ali-Keith (Mililani). This was no easy decision to make and I mean no disrespect to Ms. Keith.
In head to head competition it’s Keith 3, Abing 1. If you include the ILH/OIA combined championship results, it’s 3-2, Keith. However, Keith’s victories have come in the early part of the season, while Abing’s have come in the later part.

Either way, the race at Kapalua won’t be decided until the very end and don’t forget about Bailey Massenburg (King K). She fell ill just before the MIL championship and the question now is, is she 100% healthy and race sharp? She ran 19:48 at Kapalua waaay back on Sep. 15 and the course has since been redesigned to be a little more “friendly.”

I totally understand if you don’t agree with my rankings. Every course is different, every race is different and that is why we run the races. Bottom line, this is just one person’s opinion.

1. Haley Abing, jr, (La Pietra)
2. Kristin Ali-Keith, so, (Mililani)
3. Bailey Massenburg, jr, (King K)
4. Hailey Grossman, so, (Seabury)
5. Amanda Tamanaha, jr, (St.Andrews)
6. Jenna Wong, so, (Iolani)
7. Tialana Greenwell, fr, (Honokaa)
8. Claire Hann, so, (Maryknoll)
9. Dayna Domingo, jr, (Pearl City)
10. Maile Scarpino, so, (Iolani)
Again, where are the seniors???

From the start, Iolani was my #1 pick for the team honors but without Kimberly Pugliese (Iolani) in the line up I’m going with Punahou. Without any front runners Punahou must rely on packing, keeping the spread from their 1 – 5 runners to a minimum which they successfully did (<60s) at the ILH Championship. For the #2 spot I’m leaning towards Kamehameha (Oahu) with Leilehua right behind while Iolani drops to #4, but their future is looking really good.

What more surprises are in store come November 2? Can the Leilehua girls run the race of their lives and upset Punahou to win the team honors? It would be a first for a public school since 1980!!! Will the Leilehua boys become the first public school to win the team honors since 1982?

Boys XC Update from Anonymous

The league championship meets are now completed so here is an update on Hawaii boys cross-country. Bryce Jenkins’ and Paul Williams’ performances on a tough CORP course were impressive. They looked poised to finish 1-2 for Leilehua on an even tougher Kapalua course this Friday on Maui. The Big Island boys were also impressive at the BIIF championship meet held on the Kamehameha course near Hilo. Garrett Prinslow, Kealakehe, Mark Turner, Hilo, Jake Shiraki, Honoka’a, and Nick Ucker, Christian Liberty, all ran fine times on a course that may be a bit easier than CORP. A week ago on Maui at Kapalua, Reid Hunter, King Kekaulike, looked comfortable running 17:10. He hasn’t been pushed all year and he’s running at home. Reid could pull off the upset.

TOP 10 PICKS

1. Bryce Jenkins, Leilehua
2. Paul Williams, Leilehua
3. Mark Turner, Hilo
4. Garrett Prinslow, Kealakehe
5. Nick Ucker, Christian Liberty
6. Jake Shiraki, Honoka’a
7. Reid Hunter, King Kekaulike
8. Chris Burniske, Punahou
9. Dawnons Vorderbruegge, Kaiser
10. Matthew Nakamoto, HBA

OTHERS TO WATCH

Preston Vierra, Honoka’a
Nick Haggemann, Kea’au
Jordan Lerma, KSH
Eli Hart, HPA
Kensuke Taylor, Kailua
Patrick Understellar, Kea’au
Christian Putegnat, Campbell

The boys from Leilehua are the odds-on favorite to win the team title. They have 2 top runners plus their 3rd, 4th and 5th runners all appear on paper to be faster than anyone else's. If they can handle the pressure and Kapalua, they should run away with the trophy. Honoka’a from the Big Island is my pick for team runner-up. They also have 2 top runners and an excellent 3rd with their 4th and 5th guys the equal to any other teams’. ILH powers Punahou, Iolani and Kamehameha will round out the top 5 teams.

Comment from Coach Al - Girls XC

Please remember that these posts predicting the XC States are really only someone's opinion, for fun and to create interest in the sport. Although I'm asked constantly to publish my thoughts on what is going to happen, I am not going to do that. I've been coaching at Iolani this year and don't feel it's fair or right for me to talk about this possibly knowing some things that aren't really public knowledge.

I do want to say, though, that it is my understanding that out of the 7 Maryknoll varsity runners, 3 are not Maryknoll students, including Haley Abing. I will say that I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Maryknoll win the ILH championships. They really are an awesome team right now, and I keep thinking to myself, what would they be like if Julie had run this year. Wow!

The point is, though, that Maryknoll will not have a scoring team for States so they will not be in the mix in the team championships.

Update from Anonymous - 10/18/07 - Girls XC

2007 Girls State XC: Fire at Punahou

Impressive! Five (5) girls under the old course record at the Punahou Invite and another group of three (3) within 10 seconds of the old record!. Haley Abing (La Pietra) sets the new standard at 19:31 while super soph Claire Hann (Maryknoll/19:40), runs to a new sophomore class record and lets everyone know she’s a contender for the individual honors. Also under the old record of 19:51 were, Jenna Wong (Iolani/ 19:47), Amanda Tamanaha (St. Andrews/ 19:48) and Dayna Domingo (Pearl City/ 19:49).
Congrats and a high five to all those girls mentioned above and the best part, none of them are seniors!

Meanwhile, a little over 200 miles southeast of Oahu a young frosh by the name of Tialana Greenwell (Honokaa) has been running unchallenged on the Big Island. Her most recent performance;19:56 at Waiakea. What can she do when challenged?

It’s league championship time for Maui and Kauai this weekend and Bailey Massenburg (King K) has been very quiet since her 19:48 run on Sep. 15 at Kapalua while Hailey Grossman (Seabury) has gained confidence with her 19:24 on Sep 29. Also, not to be overlooked are Kaahumanu Rozet (KSM) and Leah Lunblad (Seabury).

For the team honors I’m staying with Iolani but the #2 spot between Kamehameha (Oahu) and Punahou is now dead even with huge improvements by Chelsea Oda (Punahou/ 20:07) and Kristi Torkildson (Punhaou/ 20:29), but let’s not forget that little school called Maryknoll. Who?

Bottom line: Maui, Nov 2, be there or you’ll be sorry.

Top 10 Individual: (Subject to change at anytime)
1. Bailey Massenburg (King K)
2. Haley Abing (La Pietra)
3. Kristin Ali-Keith (Mililani)
4. Hailey Grossman (Seabury)
5. Claire Hann (Maryknoll)
6. Jenna Wong (Iolani)
7. Amanda Tamanaha ((St. Andrews)
8. Dayna Domingo (Pearl City)
9. Kimberly Pugliese (Iolani)
10. Maile Scarpino (Iolani)

Looking to move up: (in no particular order)
Tialana Greenwell, fr (Honokaa)
Amelia Linsky, jr, (Iolani)
Chelsea Oda, sr (Punahou)
Emma Broderick, sr, (KSO)
Kaahumanu Rozet, sr, (KSM)
Chaylene Guinto, fr, (Maryknoll)
Dara Pagaduan, sr, (KSO)
Lea Lundblad (Seabury)
Malia Kagawa, sr (Maryknoll)
Kelly Opedal, jr, (KSO)
Savannah Lowrie, jr, (Leilehua)

Outlook for Hawaii Boys Cross Country 2007

Hi running fans. Hot off the presses from a knowledgeable cross-country fan. This was NOT written by Coach Al, so you are welcome to make comments on the blog, but please don't inundate me with emails!

HAWAII BOYS CROSS COUNTRY RANKINGS

I’ve read so much about Hawaii girls cross-country that I felt it only fair to write about the boys who have been running some excellent times largely unnoticed by the running community.

The Big Island and Oahu boys are the class of Hawaii cross-country in 2007. Maui has one quality runner, Reid Hunter of King Kekaulike, but he has run so infrequently that it’s hard to judge him. I have not seen any Kauai boys who look like they can crack the top 20.

Mark Turner, Hilo, and Jake Shiraki, Honoka’a have both run 16:06. Two more Big Island boys have run in the 16:20s—Nick Ucker, Christian Liberty and Nick Hagemann, Kea’au. Bryce Jenkins, Leilehua, is the defending champ and won at Punahou last week in a fine time of 16:28. All in all 11 boys from the Big Island and Oahu have gone under 17 minutes.

I have a feeling that the course and conditions at Kapalua will favor the Big Island so my top 10 picks are as follows:

1. Mark Turner, Hilo
2. Bryce Jenkins, Leilehua
3. Jake Shiraki, Honoka’a
4. Nick Ucker, Christian Liberty
5. Chris Burniske, Punahou
6. Nick Hagemann, Kea’au
7. Nathan Nakatsuka, Kamehameha, Oahu
8. Preston Vierra, Honoka’a
9. Matthew Nakamoto, HBA
10. Paul Williams, Leilehua

Others:
Garrett Prinslow, Kealakehe
Reid Hunter, King Kekaulike
Scott Motobu, Mid Pac
Dawson Vorderbruegge, Kaiser
Juan Miguel Silva, Leilehua
Jordan Lerma, Kamehameha, Hawaii
Patrick Understellar, Kea’au
Craig Kandler, Kaiser

The team championship should be very close with the 4th and 5th runners deciding who brings home the hardware. Leilehua looks like a close group of guys who have the team concept dialed in, and they look to have the best 4th and 5th runners plus Bryce. Nevertheless, you can’t count out the boys from Kamehameha who always rise to the occasion. Finally there is Honoka’a from the Big Island with two guys in the 16s and 2 more in the 17s. Here’s my top 5 team picks:
1. Leilehua
2. Kamehameha, Oahu
3. Honoka’a
4. Punahou
5. Iolani

Update from Anonymous - 10/2/07 - Girls XC

2007 Girls State XC Update

This is tough, really, really tough. The top 6 girls are evenly matched and for me to rank one above the other leaves me feeling rather uncomfortable. Clearly there is no dominant leader in the state this year, which makes for a very exciting race in November.

Who has the better sprint speed among the top 5 girls? I lean towards Bailey Massenburg (King K) 4:54.69/ 1500 but Haley Abing (La Pietra) has the better 800 time. But then, without endurance, speed means nothing and who’s the State 3k champ? Hailey Grossman (Seabury), but hey, Jenna Wong (Iolani) did most of the work in that 3k race and this is XC, not track so who finished 2nd in cross country last year? Kristin Ali-Keith (Mililani), who looks really cool with her shades.

With the individual race being so close this year will the one week break the MIL have prior to the State race make a difference? Will the top girls from the ILH/ OIA back off somewhat during their league championships (with the blessing of their coach, of course)?

I say Iolani by a thump, not a squeak anymore, for the team honors but their #5 runner must perform up to her capability on race day. Kamehameha (Oahu) takes over the #2, spot by a squeak over Punahou but it’s still early enough and every course is different so don’t get mad if you don’t agree. This is just one person’s opinion and with the Kamehameha and Punahou Invites coming up some questions could be answered.

Top 10 Individual: (Subject to change at anytime)

1. Bailey Massenburg (King K)
2. Kristin Ali-Keith (Mililani)
3. Hailey Grossman (Seabury)
4. Haley Abing (La Pietra)
5. Jenna Wong (Iolani)
6. Claire Hann (Maryknoll)
7. Lea Lundblad (Seabury)
8. Kimberly Pugliese (Iolani)
9. Maile Scarpino (Iolani)
10. Amanda Tamanaha (St. Andrews)

Looking to move up: (in no particular order)
Emma Broderick, sr, (KSO)
Kaahumanu Rozet, sr, (KSM)
Amelia Linsky, jr, (Iolani)
Dara Pagaduan, sr, (KSO)
Dayna Domingo, jr, (Pearl City)
Tialana Greenwell, fr (Honokaa)
Kelly Opedal, jr, (KSO)
Savannah Lowrie, jr, (Leilehua)
Chelsea Oda, sr (Punahou)
Malia Kagawa, sr (Maryknoll)

Salinas, California

Lea shown here training on Maui, Spring 2007.

Lea Lundblad, the freshman from Seabury Hall, opened her 2007 cross country season not in Hawaii, but in Salinas, California. She ran at the Earlybird Invitational, one of the most competitive, early season cross country meets in the state. With nearly 60 teams and 2,500 runners, Lundblad covered the hilly, 3 mile course, in 20:27 to earn her a second place individual medal. She was 4th overall. We will see Lundblad on Oahu when she will be competing at the upcoming Iolani Invitational.

From ANONYMOUS!

Hi all,

I've been asked numerous times to make a prediction on the girls' XC season. Because I am so close to the Iolani team, I have felt very uncomfortable doing it. Yes, I have my opinions, but they will remain unpublished.

But, that doesn't stop anyone else from giving their opinions. What follows is a prediction from an anonymous soothsayer. I don't know who wrote it. All I know is they are from the outer islands. Coach Al

-----------------------------

2007 Girls State XC Outlook

Underclass women rule!!! The two lone seniors with a shot at the top podium are Kaahumanu Rozet (KSM) and Chelsea Oda (Punahou) with a huge bunch of juniors, super sophs and frosh in the hunt. Big names missing from last year are defending State XC champ Julie Besenbruch/ Maryknoll and Katie Pelliteri/ Iolani.

It’s going to come down to who’s “on” come race day. Race strategy, pacing and sprint speed will become a tremendous factor. This is one race I don’t want to miss come November 2!!!

Seniors
Kaahumanu Rozet (KSM): injured during the 2006 xc, 4:51.46/ 1500. Made a huge improvement on the track from 2006 – 2007. Gave Chelsea Smith-Wishard (Kauai) a scare in the state 1500 race, so we know she has speed.

Chelsea Oda (Punahou): 9th/ 2005 State xc but was not 100% at the 2006 State xc, 5:07.16/ 1500, 10:48.66/ 3k. Has been hampered with injuries the last 2 xc seasons so her performance has been very erratic. On the track in 2007 we finally got a glimpse of the real Chelsea Oda. Has patience but a little more speed would help. Chelsea, stay healthy!

Juniors
Haley Abing (La Pietra): 4th/ 2005 State xc but was not 100% at the 2006 State xc,
1500/ 4:56.91, 11:02.86/ 3k, 2:28.30/ 800. She’s good and with a bit more speed it could put her on the top podium.

Bailey Massenburg ( King K): 19th/ 2005 State xc as a frosh, was not 100% in 2006, 4:54.69/ 1500, 11:24.00/ 3k, 2:30.2/ 800. Can this girl make it to the top podium? Oh yeah!!! It would not surprise me if she dominated the xc/track season.

Maile Scarpino/ Iolani: 4:58.67/ 1500, 2:26.75/ 800. Needs more endurance but has enough speed to be a threat. If she did her “homework” over the summer she will challenge for the top spot.

Sophomores
Hailey Grossman/ Seabury: 8th/ 2006 State xc, 5:06.63/ 1500, 10:47.62/ 3k. The state 3k champ on the track and battling Kaahumanu Rozet (KSM) and Bailey Massenburg (King K) every weekend is a win/win/win for all three girls. With the MIL having a 2 week break before the State race this could be the deciding factor.

Kristin Ali-Keith/ Mililani: 2nd/ 2006 State xc, 10:56.76/ 3k, This girl fears no one and has no fear of pain, will this comeback to haunt her or help her?

Jenna Wong/ Iolani: 6th/ 2006 State xc, 5:04.68/ 1500, 10:50.81/ 3k. Needs more speed but makes up for it with patience and guts! Not afraid to take charge and go for it!

Frosh
Kimberly Pugliese/ Iolani: She was always “up there” in the intermediate division but has been overshadowed by the other two frosh below.

Lea Lundblad/ Seabury: No stranger to xc/track racing as she dominated the intermediate division. With 62.41/ 400 speed, you don’t want to get into a sprint finish with this girl, unless your name is...

Kailea Tracy Visintainer/ Seabury: 58.73/ 400, How fast is 58.73? She would have won the State 400m race, as an 8th grader! This is the last person you want near you with 100m to go.


Top 10 Individual: Subject to change at anytime

1. Kaahumanu Rozet (KSM)
2. Chelsea Oda (Punahou)
3. Bailey Massenburg (King K)
4. Hailey Grossman (Seabury)
5. Kristin Ali-Keith (Mililani)
6. Haley Abing (La Pietra)
7. Maile Scarpino (Iolani)
8. Lea Lundblad (Seabury)
9. Kimberly Pugliese (Iolani)
10. Jenna Wong (Iolani)

Looking to move up: (in no particular order)
Dara Pagaduan, sr, (KSO)
Amelia Linsky, jr, (Iolani)
Malia Kagawa, sr, (Maryknoll)
Dana Domingo, jr, (Pearl City)
Farrah Madanay, jr, (Punahou)
Amanda Tamanaha, jr, (St. Andrews)
Kristi Torkildson, sr (Punahou)
Mari Carmichael, jr (Punahou)
Cheyane Kamai, jr, (KSO)
Emma Broderick, sr, (KSO)

For the team title, I say Iolani by a squeak. They have 4 good runners but their #5 could make or break their state title hopes. With Punahou’s depth and Chelsea Oda being a patient front runner don’t be surprised if Chelsea wins and Punahou repeats. Seabury Hall has 2 good runners but their #3, #4 and #5 is no match for Iolani’s #3, #4 and #5.