Can anyone beat Punahou in girls XC?

I was going to do an in-depth analysis but a lack of information from the outer islands and a lack of time have conspired to make this less comprehensive.

So, in a word, the answer is "NO". Not this year. Punahou will win on Friday, no hedging, they will win. Leilehua looked good in winning the OIA championship yesterday, but when I compared the times, they don't stack up against Punahou. Actually, they don't stack up against Kamehameha either, or Iolani.

Maryknoll is hard to handicap. Julie certainly is the favorite to win on Friday, but Haley has been sick. When healthy, Haley has run extremely well this year. Even sick she still ran a 20:29, good for fourth place on Saturday. Maryknoll also has Malia Kagawa who looks better and better every week. I expect Haley will run better on Friday if she continues getting healthier, and probably finish 2nd to Julie. Maryknoll's team finish depends on their number 4 and 5 runners and could put them as high as 2nd or out of the top 5.

Emma Broderick's strong showing on Saturday changed the complexion of the Kamehameha team, giving them someone who can stay close to the leaders. Kamehameha and Iolani have good balance and depth and should be in the top few.

The only outer island team I've seen that should be in the top couple of teams would be Seabury Hall. But, again, it's hard to really be sure since they are running on different courses.

So, for what it's worth, here are my predications. No guarantees, except for Punahou.

1. Punahou
2. Kamehameha
3. Iolani
4. Seabury Hall
5. Maryknoll
6. Leilehua

This is only my opinion (guess?). Comments are welcome.

Update (11/6) - After receiving some good information from a Punahou parent and a Maryknoll parent (I guess people really do read this blog!), I am making this update. I knew that Haley didn't go to Maryknoll and was actually told that she'd have to run for her own school (La Pietra) in States, but I forgot. So, if this is true, and I believe it is, Maryknoll is out of the mix completely, as they will only have 4 runners. I was thinking that Maryknoll would be a powerhouse next year and they will be, but only in the ILH, not at States.

Also, Punahou does have some medical issues, but all the contending teams seem to have varying medical challenges. My bet (figuratively speaking) still is heavily on Punahou.

My new guess:

1. Punahou
2. Kamehameha
3. Iolani
4. Seabury Hall
5. Leilehua