Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Road to HPA - Girls XC - 10/21/08 - by Anonymous

"I run to see who has the most guts" Steve Prefontaine

It all started some time in July. And now hundreds of miles later and a lot of sweat and a few tears we have arrived at the end of the season. And what a season it has been with the fastest of times ever recorded in the state since moving from two miles to three! It will all end on October 31st at HPA. Each week I have been ranking the 1-10 top girls and the 1-5 top teams. This week I'm going to give you my personal picks on who I think will come in the top 10, or as I would like to say the "Super Top Ten". Here we go.

1. Bailey Massenburg

Why: She is a senior, there is no tomorrow. She also is the reining state 800,1500 champ and 2nd in the 3000. The course is suited for her. She has the advantage of already raced on this course. Massenburg will use well timed surges to win this race.

2. Sara Clapp

Why: It will be tough to beat Massenburg on this course. She has not run on anything this hilly all season. Sara has great endurance but is she fast enough?. She will need to take it out fast and try to burn Massenburg off in order to have a chance and then be able to withstand the surges.

3. Hailey Grossman

Why: She races against Bailey Massenburg all the time. Is also the 2006 state 3000 champ. That would make anyone good. Grossman has been very consistent all season. Her latest outing at the Punahou invite resulted ina tied course record. If the above two falter, look for Grossman to win.

4. Tia Greenwell

Why: This is almost like her home course. She has probably trained on it every weekend all season long. Wouldn't you?. She also possesses the fastest time of the season, 18:18, but has never faced a group like this. Greenwell might try to run away from this group like she tried to do last year. It will be hard.

5. Kristin Ali Keith

Why: She is probably glad I put her at # 5. The last guy who did that probably inspired her to go on and win the state title. This year is no way like last year but she could dial it up and finish much higher or even win again.

6. Jenna Wong

Why: Jenna is coming off a disappointing 2007 cross country season where she ran well all season only to be injured right before States. This one is about redemption. Has run consistently well all season. She also has the ability to finish much higher.

7. Julie Besenbruch

Why: Julie has got to be called the "come back runner of the year." Has run mostly flat courses and has done very well. HPA is far from flat. She will need to dial it way up to be in the top ten.

8. Haley Abing

Why: She is also a senior. Always runs tough. Is very good at big meets. I believe she could run higher than 8th. It all depends on how fast the field goes out. I predict the first mile will be under a 6 minute pace.

9. Athena Oldfather

Why: I'm taking a chance here. She is Tia Greenwell's teammate. Also trains on HPA every-weekend.

10. Nicole Painter

Why: Has run great times all season. She is also Kristin Ali-Keith's teammate. She will have her hands full with this group. Again it comes down to how well she runs the hills.

I would like to take this time to thank all the runners, coaches and parents for a great season. I will see you all at HPA.

Yours truly, Anonymous


MissRunRGrl said...

The Mililani site (www.geocities.com/milhsxc) has a combined results and scoring of all the League championships

MrESManHI said...

If you calculate her percentage of improvement from last year to this year on the CORP course at OIA Champs, and apply that to her time on last year's state course at Kapalua, Ali-Keith would have improved by 25 seconds with a estimated time of 19:06, which puts her slightly ahead of Massenburg's 19:13 time at the MIL Champs on the same course. At the BIIF Champs, Greenwell has improved her time on the HPA course by 36 sec. since the HPA Invitational, where Massenburg and Grossman also ran, so if you apply that rate of improvement to the times they ran at that meet, combined with the close competition of other athletes in the state, I predict that it will take a sub 20 min. on the HPA course to win States this year. It wouldn't be prudent for the top runners to run a slow, wait-and-kick type of race, with last year's 800m State champion as one of the top contenders in the field.