Friday, November 17, 2006

XC States 2007 - Girls Top 10 Prediction


Predicting the top 10 girls at next year's state championships is fraught with danger. 1 year is a long time for an injury to occur, interest to wane or gain, a new athlete to appear, coaches to improve or mess someone up. Please keep in mind that I'm no expert. I just happen to attend every (ILH) XC meet every year and really LOOK at everyone. Tends to happen when you are taking their picture. I have drawn heavily on the results from States but have made some adjustments based on my own observations. These are totally my thoughts and I certainly know that I'm going to miss some kids and not be aware of certain important situations. So, without further ado...

Thoughts I'm working with:

There were 8 seniors in the top 25 at States in 2006.

Julie had a relatively injury free but busy season. She did have a hamstring problem but it wasn't major. She performed consistently at a high level throughout the season.

Kristin Ali Keith - great young runner.

Jenna Wong - much improved. Has not reached her potential yet. A great future is in store.

Malia Kagawa - Just gets better and better. Will be a senior next year. Will be in the mix at the top.

Hailey Grossman - Only 9th grade. Had a good race at States.

Haley Abing - Was sick the 2nd half of the season but still ran tough. If healthy she could have won it all this year. She is my favorite for next year.

Kristi Torkildson - Good solid runner.

Farrah Manaday - Got better as the season went on. Will continue to improve.

Dayna Domingo - The few times I've seen her I was impressed.

Dara Pagaduan - A mainstay for Kamehameha.

Katie Pellitteri - Sustained a pretty serious injury in the middle of the season that cost her 3 weeks of training. She did everything she could to rehabilitate but couldn't quite get back to challenging at the top. She will come back and be in the mix.

Cheyane Kamai and Emma Broderick - will team with Dara to form strong core for Kamehameha.

Keilani Wasson - I like how she runs. Should have a better season in her senior year.

Amanda Tamanaha - Ran sick at States. Unlucky timing. She would have done pretty well if healthy. She's young, good and tough.

Lea Lundblad - only an 8th grader but could be the best female runner to come out of Hawaii, since, well - Lauren Ho. That wasn't so long ago was it? The only question I have with Lea is can she be as good at 3 miles as she is in the 800 and 1500 and 2 miles? I think I know the answer, but I haven't seen her at this distance yet. She has awesome sprinter speed when she needs it. She will challenge for the top in 2007.

My prediction (guess) for top 10 for States in 2007:

1. Haley Abing
2. Julie Besenbruch
3. Lea Lundblad
4. Kristin Ali Keith
5. Jenna Wong
6. Katie Pellitteri
7. Kristi Torkildson
8. Farrah Manaday
9. Malia Kagawa
10. Amanda Tamanaha

As always, I'm interested in your thoughts. Comments are welcome, especially if I missed someone.

4 comments:

Coach Al said...

Thanks for your thoughts Mililani.:)

I hope to do an analysis of the teams for 2007. I also would like to post some thoughts on the boys side. It's another article for another day.

Yes, you are right about Maryknoll. I do think one of their 8th graders is not from Maryknoll though. Need to check on that. They would be such a powerhouse if Haley could run for them.

And, yes Mililani will get a boost, as will Iolani. I'm hoping that we can convince Kelly Kaneta to run next year. If you remember her, she was super in 7th grade but got hurt. Next year she plays varsity soccer which may leave her relatively free in the fall. We also have other youngsters that are going to help. I'm excited about next year's prospects.

Add Lea Lundblad to the mix, it should be a real fun year.

Coach Al

town girl said...

I like your list but think Malia Kasagawa may surprise us all....

at any rate it should be a fun season and I think you are right - that Maryknoll will have enough for their own girls team next year for states.

Coach Al said...

Thanks town girl.:)

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Malia finished higher than I listed her. You probably know her a lot better than I do. I actually don't know her at all, but I did watch her all season and I love the way she runs.

That's why we have the races.:) It definitely will be a fun year.

run because u can said...

next year maryknoll will have a great shot at state title...both of the eighth graders (brie adams and allyson calabrese) are from maryknoll. Both run well with the varsity team the represented maryknoll this past year...returning for next year, maryknoll will have Julie, Malia, and Claire all of whom are continuing to improve...it is unfortunate that maryknoll did not get to run as a team this year...its sad that haley will not be able to run for maryknoll at states, but she is a good representative for La Pietra